FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/30/2014

AM Comments 04/30/14

Wednesday, April 30, 2014, 8:13 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The corn and soybean markets were lower last night on little news.  The 6-10 day weather forecast is starting to show above normal temperatures for the Midwest (mainly the southern belt) which could help get the U.S. Midwest back on the path to planting.  The soybean market is feeling a little pressure thanks to fresh rumors of additional Brazilian beans heading to the U.S.  I have said this before – these imports are needed and should be expected, but the bears in the market will still use this as a reason to sell.

 

The outside markets are lower with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 106 @ 100.22) along with a lower US Dollar (138.68 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is slightly lower (DN 9).

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 4 cents

Soybeans down 3 to 6 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2096

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/29/2014

AM Comments 04/29/14

Tuesday, April 29, 2014, 8:27 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The markets are slightly higher this morning, with corn firming once again on the cooler/wetter weather forecasts.  The weekly planting progress report that was released yesterday also helped support corn – the market was expecting 20-25% planted on corn and the USDA says c corn in 19% planted vs. 28% average.  IA, IN and OH are all 18 points behind their respective 5-year averages.  The average for next Monday’s report?  47%. 

 

Other than that, pretty quiet.  The soybean market seems to ebb and flow right along with Chinese crush margins (which are improving a bit as meal demand perks up).  If China is truly starting to turn their margins around, it could be tougher for the US to nab some of those Brazilian ships of beans that not long ago had nowhere to go. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans steady to 2 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2094

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/28/2014

AM Comments 04/28/14

Monday, April 28, 2014, 7:58 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The soybean market found support last night and bounced sharply higher – pushing May & July futures prices back up above $15.  I almost don’t want to type this, but the rumor is that on the recent pull-back in soybean prices China started nosing around trying to buy additional Brazilian beans (the story last week was that they could cancel out of those purchases fast enough).  So who knows, overall though with a bean carryout that is this tight – we will see more than our fair share of volatility. 

 

The corn market is also a touch higher so far this morning – while the rain that fell over the weekend is beneficial to some, it is currently being viewed as a threat to planting progress.  The weekly planting progress report will be out later this afternoon with the market expecting us to be slightly behind “normal”.  The cool wet weather this week won’t help us catch up, and the extreme cold weather in some of the northern wheat country will not be much help to that crop’s condition ratings.

 

The outside markets are higher with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 40 @ 101.00) along with a lower US Dollar (138.57 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 60).

 

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans 10 to 15 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2092

 

FC Morning Market Commentary 04.25.14

Good morning!

The corn and soybean markets were both higher last night – it appears that the weather forecasts have turned a little wetter which is expected to delay corn planting (hence higher prices).  Monday afternoon we will have another planting progress report which will likely show U.S. corn somewhere around 20% planted, which would be a little behind the average of 32% but nothing too concerning.  Well… with next week’s forecast now looking wetter, it will be hard to gain ground on planting progress that week.  This means the Monday after that could show us well behind the average which will start to approach 50%.

In other friendly news (friendly to prices) – tensions in the Black Sea are escalating once again, which is directly supporting wheat. 

It is a little too early to talk about (let’s get the crop in the ground first) but El Nino chances keep moving up and up (which bring cool, wet weather to the US Midwest).  The chart at the bottom of this email shows the probability for El Nino to show up this July/August/Sep – it looked only possible back in January but now it looks very likely.  If realized, this would likely push corn and soybean yield forecasts higher. (link)

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 5 cents higher

Soybeans 7-10 cents higher (old crop), steady new crop

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary

Good morning!

The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it was pretty much as expected.  Corn sales were decent – right in the middle of the range of guesses.  Soybeans sales were near zero (but still a touch positive) which is actually right in the middle of the range of guesses.  New crop soybean sales were a little disappointing, which could cause new crop prices to lose a little ground to old crop today. Old crop soybean meal sales were big, which will offer support to beans.  Overall – not much to see here. 

Generally speaking corn and wheat are both trading weather, and they both view the weather forecasts as friendly.  Wheat is rallying thanks to dry weather in the plains while corn is rallying thanks to wet weather in the corn belt.  Long term, this moisture we have been getting will likely be viewed as bearish to corn prices (we need the rain) – but not until we know the crop is in the ground.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner 

@fccoopgrain

FC Hosts Iowa Central Community College Students

On April 15, 2014, we hosted 15 students and their instructor from Iowa Central Community College at our Farnhamville location.   

Kathy Carlson and Tyler Farnham started the morning by showed them a brief presentation on FC and our history. They shared facts about the company, and tips on pursuing a career.  The ICCC group were then given a tour of the Farnhamville location.  The students were able to see the behind the scenes of the grain and agronomy departments and what makes a co-op function.  Along the tour they were also able to go inside the new fertilizer shed and see the technology that’s being utilized in today’s operations.  They wrapped up the tour with being given a new FC hat and all took a minute to pose for a class photo in front of their bus!

Thank you to ICCC for spending the morning with us, we enjoyed having you!

FC Morning Market Commentary 04.22.14

Good Morning! 

Overnight markets a little higher on thoughts that maybe yesterday’s down move was a bit overdone, although price rally potential may be capped by overall good spring weather for planting, and trade reports of additional Brazilian beans and Argentine sbmeal imports to the eastern half of the US. Today’s weather looks pretty good everywhere.  2 fronts to pass thru the Midwest this week, first one tomorrow then second over the weekend. Both carry pretty good chances of rain.  National corn planting progress was 6% yesterday, trade was expecting 10-12%.  Not concerning yet, as with good conditions nearly half the US corn crop can be sowed in  a week. Other news light this am, equities slightly higher and energies slightly lower.  Re-opening grain calls will be higher….corn up 3-4 and soybeans up 3-5.

Jon Setterdahl