Tuesday, October 2, 2012

A.M. Grain Market Comments 10/2/2012

Soybeans are under severe pressure again as traders continue to talk about better bean yields across the US and farmers are selling.  In September the USDA had the US bean yield pegged at 35.3bpa, there are wild thoughts out there that this yield could be somewhere between 37 and 40 bpa!  Not sure if that will happen, but with the USDA Production/S&D report out next Thursday (Oct 11th) the private analyst’s estimates will start rolling in to the marketplace.  FC Stone comes out with theirs sometime today, Informa comes out Friday.

Harvest progress is still chugging along at a record pace.  Usually it takes till the last week in October to have corn harvest at 54% complete and that is where we were at as of September 30th.  Bean harvest is also quick – we are 41% harvested which is more than double the 5-year average.  This all adds to the weakness.

Demand is still strong for beans, and it could gett stronger with this price break. Domestic crush margins are still strong, benefiting from weaker bean prices and a strong meal basis.  In September the US exported a record 76.7 million bushels of soybeans! The old record was 72.8 million.  Current export sales -- already on the books -- for the coming crop year is 782.2 million bushels (per the USDA).  On the September S&D report the TOTAL projected exports was 1055 million bushels.  That means that the US has already sold 74% of all the projected exports for the year.  If any new demand shows up in the marketplace we will need the bean yield to improve just to cover it. 

There isn’t a lot of news out for corn.  Yields are still a big question mark and the report next week could hopefully answer a lot of those questions. It seems that if soybeans weren’t falling out of bed corn would be steady/higher.  Any recovery in beans and corn should snap back quickly.

Currently
Corn is down 8 to 10 cents
Soybeans are down 28 to 30 cents

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain
http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm

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