Morning Comments 10/8/2013
Tuesday, October 8, 2013, 8:14 amSubmitted by: Kyle Lehman
Once again the markets were quiet overnight with corn trading in a 2 cent range while soybeans chopped around in a 7 cent range. News has been very limited the past week and a half with the government shutdown leaving traders in the dark. The USDA will not release the October S&D on Friday and the possibility of even seeing the report in October is dwindling by the day. Although we may not see the USDA report there is still data on the average trade guess for what the report was expected to look like. Average trade guess for corn was a yield of 156.5 bpa up slightly from 155.3 bpa in September. The average production estimate is 13.8 bln bushels, unchanged from September due to a reduction in harvested acres. Most trade is expecting a slight reduction in exports widening the carryout to 1.923 bln from 1.855 bln last month.
Soybeans are finding slight support from the higher Dalian (China exchange). Average trade guess for soybeans is 41.5 bpa up .3 bpa from last month. Production up slightly to 3.156 bln bushels from 3.149 bln last month widening the carryout to 167 mln from 150 mln last month. Either way you look at the soybean market the carryout is tight.
Remember these are trade guesses for a report that has been delayed and may never be released but it’s about the only direction the market has to trade off for now.
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