Thursday, January 16, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for January 16, 2014

AM Comments 01/16/14

Thursday, January 16, 2014, 8:17 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30 this morning and old crop soybean exports were at the bottom end of guesses – but the fact that we are still exporting beans when many in the market have been waiting for cancellations has caused the soybean market to pop higher once again.  When you couple these exports with yesterday’s record domestic crush numbers – the bean market should stay strong today - if beans close higher today, that will be the 6th day in a row.  Corn sales numbers came out above the highest estimate which has also allowed corn to work higher.  Interesting to note on the trade in corn yesterday: the corn market was lower but open interest went up.  Meaning new shorts were piling on the corn market.
 
After the market paused at 7:45am, the USDA made a few more announcements.  First of all, another 465k MT of beans were sold to China (most of them new crop). Second, 126k MT of corn that was previously sold to “unknown destinations” (read: China) were cancelled.  This could take a little luster off the corn market.
 
The export news this morning is about all there is to talk about.  Argentine weather is still something to watch as this hot dry weather is supposed to relax a bit when we hit the weekend.  We did read this morning that Chinese spot soybean crush margins are running near break-even, which will be interesting to watch.
 
Opening calls
Corn 1 to 3 cents higher
Soybeans 7 to 10 cents higher
 
 
 

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