Wednesday, January 16, 2013

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 1/16/2013

AM Comments 01/16/13

Wednesday, January 16, 2013, 8:11 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!

Our markets are higher this morning with the main source of news coming out of South America. The market appears to be adding a little risk premium into the market as southern Brazil and Argentina still look dry for the next couple weeks.  Today this is directly effecting their corn crop - over half of Argentina’s corn will pollinate in the next couple weeks. 

Even with corn entering a critical stage in SA, most of the premium this morning is being added to soybean futures because if the pattern remains hot and dry for a month or so longer… soybean yields would be in jeopardy.  This is crucial because the market (read: Chinese imports) is planning to switch almost entirely from the U.S. to South America from March forward.  So concern over the soybean crop is warranted, even if it feels a little early to worry much about it.  A change in the forecast would be an obvious sell signal for traders.

Other than that – pretty quiet.  The wheat market is higher on continued rumblings of China buying more U.S. wheat.  Corn, soybeans and wheat all appear to be trending higher on the charts after these past few days – we will see how long this rally lasts with the only fundamental news coming from SA weather.

Currently:
Corn is up 2 to 4 cents
Soybeans are up 10 to 13 cents

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