Thursday, January 3, 2013

P.M. Grain Market Commentary for 1/3/2013

PM Comments 01/03/13

Thursday, January 3, 2013, 3:27 pm
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good afternoon!

Our markets started off under pressure this morning and tried their best to recover (corn actually traded higher for a portion of the day).  At the end of the day both corn and soybeans settled lower albeit a decent amount off their lows.  Corn is still trading just above major support at 6.8350 on the ch (that is the 200 day moving average as well as a chart gap from July), and did NOT take it out today.  If corn does trade below that number, ‘Katie bar the door’ because we could be in for a sharply lower trade. 

Soybeans were the leader to the downside today as they experienced a ton of selling pressure from news about China cancellations as well as additional fund liquidation/rebalancing.  South American weather is starting to pick up steam as a ‘bearish input’ as some private analysts have Brazil’s soybean crop over 20% larger than last year’s. 

Attached to these comments is the updated U.S. drought monitor map.  You can see that the Eastern Corn Belt is looking good while the western corn belt is slowly improving but still has a lot of work to do.  There is moisture in the 6-10 day forecast for a large portion of the Midwest (esp the South) which today is bearish to grain prices.

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