AM Comments 07/30/13
Tuesday, July 30, 2013, 8:17 amSubmitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning!
Our grain markets found a couple reasons to buy last night (or at least not sell), pushing futures prices a bit higher. The first story is about the crop ratings, U.S. soybeans dropped 1% in the good-to-excellent categories while corn held steady. I think the market was expecting/hoping to see slight improvements in both. Also – there are plenty of rain chances for this week but totals in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin could be disappointing. The best coverage is all pointed South, from Missouri to Southern Indiana & Ohio. 
On the flip side of that - as you saw in FC’s Monday Morning Alert on corn from yesterday (link: http://youtu.be/_LjaCjLE1y0) - these cooler nights are likely benefitting the U.S. corn crop. The general weather pattern over the next two weeks show a ridge parked over the Rockies – meaning that there is little to no threat of any extreme heat between now and the middle of August for the Midwest. If the corn belt can catch a few rains over that time you’d have to assume we are adding bpa to this crop (you know that the market will assume that).
Producer selling has been near non-existent since the break in prices last week. That may not have a large influence on futures prices – but basis may start to come back around if it continues. Harvest will be here sooner than you think and it sure feels like any sharp rallies in prices (whether due to basis or futures) are meant to be sold.
Opening Calls
Corn 3 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher
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