A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 11/5/2012

AM Comments 11/05/12

Monday, November 5, 2012, 8:00 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning! 

Our markets are mixed this morning as we enter what should be a big week for market news. In case you haven’t heard, the election is tomorrow.  While I don’t think anybody knows which way the markets will move with whichever presidential candidate gets elected – those who are bullish can make a case for both parties.  For example you could say that Obama winning would weaken the dollar (friendly to commodities).  You could also make the case that a Romney victory would mean a change to a lower tax base which would support agriculture. 

Also this week we will get the Nov USDA S&D report - due out Friday morning.  Generally speaking the trade thinks that the bean yield will be increased (those same thoughts can be blamed for the sell off over the last few trading sessions) while corn production should remain steady to a little bigger.  The wild card will be the demand projections.  You can make the case that any increase in supply will be swiftly offset by an increase in demand – especially in soybeans.

So… for today through Thursday expect a choppy/sideways trade depending on if this election tomorrow has an effect.  South American weather will be watched closely, it seems that it goes back and forth from favorable to unfavorable on a daily basis down there.  The story over the weekend is that the areas that are dry will see moisture and the areas that are wet will see dryness.  This is of course weakening soybean futures.

Currently

Corn is steady to up 2 cents

Soybeans are down 7 to 10 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm