Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Morning Grain Market Commentary

December 11, 2012
Farmers Cooperative Company
Ames, Iowa

Good morning!

The USDA monthly S&D report was released this morning and it was, well, boring.  They didn’t change a single thing on corn, leaving supply and demand the same as last month, showing the same projected carryout as last month: 647mb.  This could be viewed as a touch friendly because the trade was expecting a bearish number but overall it is pretty neutral. 

Soybeans changed almost exactly like we thought they would, the USDA cut the projected carryout from 140mb to 130mb – due to an increase in domestic crush.  This is also friendly/neutral.  However, the Brazil and Argentina soybean crops were left unchanged which could be bearish beans as Argentina was expected to be down due to their flooding/planting issues.

The only other thing to read in this report came from the wheat market, as it was bearish wheat (exports shrunk, pushing carryouts up).  This matters to you because corn has a hard time rallying with wheat under pressure…

Overall: nothing to see here.  Can you guess what we get to concentrate on now?  The outside markets.  South American weather.  The fiscal cliff.  How exciting!  So far this morning the outside markets are a little friendly as the dollar is under pressure, SA weather looks good and the fiscal cliff is still out there adding risk as Dec 31 gets closer and closer.

Currently:
Corn is down 3 to 4 cents
Soybeans are down 6 to 9 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner
@fccoopgrain

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