Wednesday, August 28, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/28/2013

AM Comments 08/28/13

Wednesday, August 28, 2013, 7:42 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
Yesterday afternoon we saw corn and soybean futures sell off late thanks to some moderation in the weather forecasts. Overnight both commodities tried to put in a rally before giving way to some selling – they are now both trading a touch lower.
 
There isn’t much news to go on today, crude oil is higher again this morning which could add strength to our commodities as well.  All eyes will be on the midday weather forecasts – if they look any cooler or wetter, expect another sell off in soybeans.  If they stay unchanged or get warmer and drier, expect a rally.
 
Here’s an interesting nugget when comparing this year to past record dry Augusts:
·         Change in Aug production estimates to the final production:
o   ‘71 (3rd) -4.8%
o   '76 (1) -4.1%
o   '84 (2nd) -8.6%
o   2003 (11th) -14.3%
o   2008 (8th) -0.2%
·         Assuming average of those 5 years implies -6.4% decline from 13/14 August production estimate.  Would drop the 3.255 bbu crop to 3.046 bbu (last years bean crop was 3.015 bbu)
 
The next round of FC marketing sessions are tomorrow, with Farnhamville starting at 9am and Bradford starting at 1:30pm
 
Opening Calls
Corn down 2 to 4 cents
Soybeans steady to down 2 cents

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