Morning Comments 8/15/2013
Thursday, August 15, 2013, 8:37 amSubmitted by: Kyle Lehman
Weather premium is being added to the market this morning even with rain falling in Western Iowa and NW Missouri. Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota are in need of a good rain prior to next week’s warm up temperatures with forecasts calling for little to no chance of that happening. There is a tropical storm east of the Yucatan Peninsula that is projected to hit LA and work its way north into the Tennessee Valley and if it shifts west would bring some much needed rain into Iowa and Illinois.
Export inspections were bearish old crop and bullish new crop. Both corn and soybean sales showed a net negative meaning cancellations were greater than purchases. New crop seems to be the story as both corn and soybean new crop sales were double what analysts had projected.
The big news is the release of the FSA prevent planted acres data. The FSA showed 3.4 mln acres of corn was prevent plant while 1.6 mln acres were prevent plant for soybeans. It will certainly be interesting to see how the market reacts to this data when the market reopens. Keep in mind the USDA currently has planted acres of 97.4 mln acres in the S&D calculations which means one of three things...
A) The initial planting intentions were heavily underestimated and should have been 100.8 mln acres (97.4 planted+3.4 mln prevent plant)
B) Planted acres the USDA is using in over stated
C) Both
The correct answer is most likely C) both but the questions is how much of each is correct. This is what trade will probably argue about the rest of the day.
No comments:
Post a Comment