Morning Comments 8/23/2013
Friday, August 23, 2013, 8:25 amSubmitted by: Kyle Lehman
It’s another weather induced rally for the soybean market with warm temperatures expected to move into the Midwest later tonight. Most of Iowa will see temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s starting Sunday and lasting to next weekend (maybe longer). Scattered showers will be few and far between causing concern for soybean production. Over the past 10 days the soybean market has put on over $1.50 premium for weather concerns and the question traders are asking is “is this enough” or is “this too much”. Needless to say pod fill will be watched closer over the next several weeks. Corn futures have been reluctantly pulled higher by rallies in the soybean market. Some are estimating with corn maturity where it is that only 1-3% of the US corn yield could be impacted by the heat/lack of moisture moving through the Midwest. That represents 150-400 mln bushels which is a drop in the bucket with the 1.8 bln bushel estimated ending stocks.
Pro Farmer released their final estimates of Iowa pegging corn yield at 171.9 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 163 bpa. Average soybean pod count was 927 vs the 3 year average of 1190. Minnesota corn yield was estimated at 181.1 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 166 bpa. Pro Farmer will release their total US production estimate later today. You can probably sum up the tour with better than expected corn yield and disappointing bean yield.
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