Morning Comments 8/13/2013
Tuesday, August 13, 2013, 8:14 amSubmitted by: Kyle Lehman
The markets are finding support this morning on follow through buying after yesterday’s bullish supply/demand estimates. Crop condition ratings last night were as expected, unchanged at 64% good/excellent in both corn and soybeans. Iowa’s corn crop dropped 2% to 49% good/excellent while most of the eastern corn belt improved 1-2%.
USDA tightened both old crop and new crop ending stocks for corn more than expected causing short covering by funds. As we have seen in the past, money flow by funds has a huge impact on prices and with the bullish report it’s hard to see new shorts entering the market over the next couple of days meaning a “short term” bottom may have been formed. The market still feels bearish to prices as US corn is still high priced compared with foreign markets and trade starts to question the USDA yield figure. USDA is currently using a 5 year average for ear and pod weight (including the drought last year) which if too low could be understating yield.
The 5 day forecast has significant rain falling from the Tennessee Valley and south which will delay harvest in those areas. The 6-10 day forecast is calling for a drier pattern with more normal temperatures expected. Weather models are pointing to atmospheric disruptions which could bring heavy rain into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late this week.
No comments:
Post a Comment